The decline in lending in the third quarter should not come as a surprise. As a rule, the holiday period is not conducive to looking for real estate and taking out loans. However, despite the fact that the third quarter of this year was weaker both from the second quarter of 2014 and from the third quarter of 2013, comparing 9 months of this year with the same period last year, we can say that in 2014 it is better than in 2013.
In the third quarter of 2014, banks granted over 43,000 loans in the total value of $ 9.2 billion. In terms of value, this result is worse by 3.6% compared to the second quarter of this year, and in terms of volume by 4.06%. Also compared to the same period of 2013, from July to September this year, less loans were granted than a year ago. In terms of value, the decrease was 3.14%, and in terms of the number of loans granted by 4.63%. However, it is worth noting that from January to the end of September this year, 131,094 loans with a total value of $ 27.663 billion were granted. This value is 3.58 percent better than in the corresponding period of 2013. At that time, 131,451 loans worth $ 26.708 billion were granted.
What loans are we taking?
A detailed analysis of loans granted also shows that the vast majority of loans are those with an LTV (loan to value) ratio exceeding 80%. In other words, as much as 47.13% of loans had an own contribution of less than 20%. This value is particularly important in the context of changes coming from January 1, 2015. Then, according to Recommendation S, it will be necessary to bring in a minimum of 10% of own funds. It is difficult to estimate the scale of loans with a 10% and lower own contribution, but given that as much as 47.13% of loans had an own contribution of less than 20%, it can be assumed that a very large number of loans were granted with a minimum own contribution.
The currency structure of loans granted remains unchanged. For many months now, only loans in our native currency have been available in practice. Although in the third quarter several hundred loans in euros were granted, their share in volume terms is only 0.87%. This is the effect of both the previous policy of banks and Recommendation S, which allows granting foreign currency loans only to people who earn income in a given currency.
However, the average loan amount also remains virtually unchanged. In the third quarter of this year it amounted to slightly over $ 204 thousand. An interesting fact is the high average loan amount in foreign currency, because it amounts to over $ 440 thousand.
Although the average loan amount exceeds $ 200,000, the most popular loan is the one from the $ 100-200 thousand segment, which was granted over 35 percent.
The territorial distribution of loans granted is also interesting information
In the third quarter of this year, 63.26 percent of all loans were granted in 9 largest urban centers in Poland (Katowice agglomeration, Szczecin, Białystok, Poznań, Tri-City, Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław). This means that the credit and housing market is mainly concentrated in large cities. This credit distribution also confirms that they are the largest and most liquid real estate markets.